Although your final comments emphasize that Intel is mostly not in the business of QC, the increasingly analog nature of the low-level hardware that you mention earlier, "With a GAA type design, not only implementing stacking but sheet width as well, the drive current is now a continuous spectrum", pushes us also towards designs where the probability of binary errors has to be more accommodated. To widen the perspective that I intend by this comment, QC can be taken to be about engineering the noise in a system as a way to engineer faster implementations of specific algorithms. As the effects of noise become more significant in smaller scale circuits, a step to engineering noise to use it positively for specific algorithms instead of engineering noise to make it have no effect on algorithms may be a transition that Intel (and other manufacturers with very extensive understanding of materials and process technology) will be able to push through more smoothly than might be expected as of now. Many factors may intervene, of course, and this obviously comes from a very specific perspective on QM and QC.
"the increasingly analog nature of the low-level hardware that you mention earlier.." Only the current supply of a GAA-FET transistor becomes quasi-analogue (as opposed to *discrete* rather than digital or binary), however that would not affect the computing paradigm by somehow making it less digital and more analogue. Why/how would/could it? The "continuous" rather than discrete drive current will simply give semiconductor engineers better flexibility in extracting higher energy efficiency from their design, as is mentioned in the article, which is important. I also don't see any connection to quantum computing, which is another matter entirely.
intel's biggest problem is the "sales dept lead" market control mentality that leads to saying no to every expansion or capacity expansion opportunity. they are the opposite of elon musk. They could have taken dozens of different process node technologies to high volume production by now, instead they do only two in 5 years. they could've built more fabs and drive down their costs with better amortization but instead they hope to control supply and jack up prices. I dont think they have learned. they have no vision, no desire to solve new problems or even old ones like dram. complete opposite of Elon, he wants to solve every problem he runs into. Honestly Tesla is more likely to get into something new like MRAM than Intel at this point. Intel is sitting there hoping to find the right person(s), hire them, get back to leading edge and everything can stabilize. thats not how it works. the Newtonian universe does not exist. you either expand or you contract.
Wut. Intel has expanded capacity, and changed manufacturing processes at the same pace as AMD and Nvidia.
It would be nice if the conspiracy theories people come up with were even remotely plausible. TIL Intel "hopes to control supply." Why, AMD would double wafer orders in the face of overstock reports!
If that was the case they wouldn't have hired TSMC and Samsung to produce chips for them at 14nm never mind the 10nm issues for years. They had an empty fab down the road from me for years. Apple almost went 1/2 on it ages ago.
They blew 4B+ a year for 4+ years on mobile rather than spending that 15-20B on FABS. That is why 10nm is 3-4yrs late. It is why they are no longer in the lead. PERIOD. They also refused for ages to make OTHER products. They could have easily won mobile if they had made a deal to buy out NV, and make socs/gpus that would have filled even more fabs and cemented their lead for decades. They could have easily made a cpu that played windows or arm. Not saying they can't get back (good roadmap if they can hit it), but they are not the leader of fabs today. PERF etc don't lie. TSMC has they beat for now (samsung maybe too). I see a time I may buy Intel again (stock).
AMD DID double wafers, as they bought ALL of the 15% of capacity apple was taking from 7nm. That 15% happens to double AMD's old 15%, so now roughly 30% of TSMC 7nm going AMD in some shape or form? This site itself said they bought it ALL (among others saying the same). If this is true, AMD is #1 at TSMC 7nm now. I'm guessing they're piling up launch chips for Q4 right now with those wafers.
What overstock reports? Intel can't fill 10% of their customer's orders (dell, hp, lenovo, etc whining), so I think it's a safe bet AMD wants some of those orders. How many chips does 10% of Intel's customers equal? 280mil chips sold yearly, gpus on top, consoles, custom apu. AMD has a lot of stuff to double their take. Going from 15% to 30% is doubling wafers, so should be near double chips unless you massively grow your dies. I don't hear that happening as next launch is 8c apu with a gpu far short of where I'd put it, so not a large die here. Next gpu isn't until 2021 IMHO but they say 2020. In AMD's opinion that could be Xbox/ps5. I don't count it as RDNA2 until it's in a PC desktop or laptop, not a console, but obviously they are both launching around Q4/Q1 so a large amount of silicon will be going to both for launches (think 5-10mil each in the next 6 months, so gpu later IMHO).
Either way, consoles will be a large die going for 4k (ROFL, whatever), RTX stuff, last size of original xbox1/ps4 were ~360mm^2 IIRC. I think even Xbox X is supposedly 400mm^2 or so roughly if rumors are true. So again, quite a large piece of silicon going out for millions of xbox/ps5 consoles. That size of die adds up quick when you are used to making 100-250mm^2 for most of your stuff. Never mind SERVER dies that use that or far more in what is coming. What will 128c take? Can they do a 7nm 128c (7nm+ EUV rumor for zen3 4000 series) with decent speeds/watts? We'll see, but those would be large I'd guess no matter what way they go :) No worries, silicon shortages coming probably for the next year as companies go back to work and buy silicon regardless of people. They can't quit the server, AI, cloud, car wars. Enterprise has no choice, innovate, or someone else takes all these over first and you're left with crumbs.
Checking a Epyc Rome die, 416 (cpus)+125 (IOD)+some other stuff, 1008mm^2 total silicon if I'm reading the pic right...LOL. Either way, again, many ways to spend double AMD silicon if you have BETTER products. I'd guess at some point Intel won't have shortages and instead will have overstock reports :) I see emptying shelves for new products (NV been doing it for a while, amd too probably). Intel is probably having issues dumping stuff that sucks in many things vs. AMD currently, but fortunately it would seem most of AMD's new silicon went to consoles (another dumb move, go after RICH, then poor consoles for $10-20 a chip). They just don't seem to know how to make HIGH MARGIN stuff FIRST. They always go no margin junk apu/console, then the money makers when it's too late, NV/Intel already collected. Looks like we'll do it again. AMD will have 1B NET INCOME per Q when they quit wasting silicon on consoles before FLAGSHIP CPU/GPU/SERVER. Aim high, go low only when forced. I wouldn't make a single piece of silicon for poor people (cpus under $200, gpu same) until servers were no longer selling and some were stuck on the shelf. ONLY then, do you make a lower margin product as the little guy in this game.
Also note, simply doubling wafers doesn't magically have 2x wafers pop out tomorrow. You have to rejig designs for a (potentially new process for product X) new process, or product that IS a new design itself, etc etc. IT is months before you tool up for new products before you see it on a shelf. Apple doesn't cancel 7nm 1 day and pump out 5nm 24hrs later. That takes time, then time for AMD or whoever takes their place to tape out more chips on said older process (7nm in this case for AMD) Either way, CUSTOMERS WIN here IMHO. More stuff floating around, we get better chips, at better cost and they have no way to avoid the war really. TEch is going to be great for buyers for the next 3-5yrs. Massively explosions coming in perf/watts/features etc now coming into view. We just saw 830mm^2 max, then shortly after 1600mm^2+, now talking 3500mm^2+ dies. We have everyone talking packaging tech, etc. Massive power incoming from MANY directions of tech in silicon. Lots of fun coming, upgrade your life so you can afford more toys people :)
Off work? Take some training courses to raise your value while off, go back stronger and worth MORE $$$. Or just wait until the toys you want come down a year later. Wait or make more bank. :)
Intel are already using variable numbers of fins/transistor to tune transistor operation on the same die (e.g. trading off current capacity vs. leakage), so this gives them more flexibility in varying gate width directly rather than in discrete steps.
When Intel moved to finfet clocks got substantially reduced compared to sandy bridge. What can we probably expect of the overclocking potential of gaafet?
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bhd2 - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
Note the TARDIS in the background in his office! Another Dr. Who fan!PeterMorgan573 - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
Although your final comments emphasize that Intel is mostly not in the business of QC, the increasingly analog nature of the low-level hardware that you mention earlier, "With a GAA type design, not only implementing stacking but sheet width as well, the drive current is now a continuous spectrum", pushes us also towards designs where the probability of binary errors has to be more accommodated. To widen the perspective that I intend by this comment, QC can be taken to be about engineering the noise in a system as a way to engineer faster implementations of specific algorithms. As the effects of noise become more significant in smaller scale circuits, a step to engineering noise to use it positively for specific algorithms instead of engineering noise to make it have no effect on algorithms may be a transition that Intel (and other manufacturers with very extensive understanding of materials and process technology) will be able to push through more smoothly than might be expected as of now. Many factors may intervene, of course, and this obviously comes from a very specific perspective on QM and QC.Santoval - Sunday, June 28, 2020 - link
"the increasingly analog nature of the low-level hardware that you mention earlier.."Only the current supply of a GAA-FET transistor becomes quasi-analogue (as opposed to *discrete* rather than digital or binary), however that would not affect the computing paradigm by somehow making it less digital and more analogue. Why/how would/could it?
The "continuous" rather than discrete drive current will simply give semiconductor engineers better flexibility in extracting higher energy efficiency from their design, as is mentioned in the article, which is important. I also don't see any connection to quantum computing, which is another matter entirely.
azfacea - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
intel's biggest problem is the "sales dept lead" market control mentality that leads to saying no to every expansion or capacity expansion opportunity. they are the opposite of elon musk. They could have taken dozens of different process node technologies to high volume production by now, instead they do only two in 5 years. they could've built more fabs and drive down their costs with better amortization but instead they hope to control supply and jack up prices. I dont think they have learned. they have no vision, no desire to solve new problems or even old ones like dram. complete opposite of Elon, he wants to solve every problem he runs into. Honestly Tesla is more likely to get into something new like MRAM than Intel at this point. Intel is sitting there hoping to find the right person(s), hire them, get back to leading edge and everything can stabilize.thats not how it works. the Newtonian universe does not exist. you either expand or you contract.
JayNor - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
"Intel Demonstrates STT-MRAM for L4 Cache"https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-demonstrat...
brantron - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
Wut. Intel has expanded capacity, and changed manufacturing processes at the same pace as AMD and Nvidia.It would be nice if the conspiracy theories people come up with were even remotely plausible. TIL Intel "hopes to control supply." Why, AMD would double wafer orders in the face of overstock reports!
TheJian - Tuesday, June 30, 2020 - link
If that was the case they wouldn't have hired TSMC and Samsung to produce chips for them at 14nm never mind the 10nm issues for years. They had an empty fab down the road from me for years. Apple almost went 1/2 on it ages ago.They blew 4B+ a year for 4+ years on mobile rather than spending that 15-20B on FABS. That is why 10nm is 3-4yrs late. It is why they are no longer in the lead. PERIOD. They also refused for ages to make OTHER products. They could have easily won mobile if they had made a deal to buy out NV, and make socs/gpus that would have filled even more fabs and cemented their lead for decades. They could have easily made a cpu that played windows or arm. Not saying they can't get back (good roadmap if they can hit it), but they are not the leader of fabs today. PERF etc don't lie. TSMC has they beat for now (samsung maybe too). I see a time I may buy Intel again (stock).
AMD DID double wafers, as they bought ALL of the 15% of capacity apple was taking from 7nm. That 15% happens to double AMD's old 15%, so now roughly 30% of TSMC 7nm going AMD in some shape or form? This site itself said they bought it ALL (among others saying the same). If this is true, AMD is #1 at TSMC 7nm now. I'm guessing they're piling up launch chips for Q4 right now with those wafers.
What overstock reports? Intel can't fill 10% of their customer's orders (dell, hp, lenovo, etc whining), so I think it's a safe bet AMD wants some of those orders. How many chips does 10% of Intel's customers equal? 280mil chips sold yearly, gpus on top, consoles, custom apu. AMD has a lot of stuff to double their take. Going from 15% to 30% is doubling wafers, so should be near double chips unless you massively grow your dies. I don't hear that happening as next launch is 8c apu with a gpu far short of where I'd put it, so not a large die here. Next gpu isn't until 2021 IMHO but they say 2020. In AMD's opinion that could be Xbox/ps5. I don't count it as RDNA2 until it's in a PC desktop or laptop, not a console, but obviously they are both launching around Q4/Q1 so a large amount of silicon will be going to both for launches (think 5-10mil each in the next 6 months, so gpu later IMHO).
Either way, consoles will be a large die going for 4k (ROFL, whatever), RTX stuff, last size of original xbox1/ps4 were ~360mm^2 IIRC. I think even Xbox X is supposedly 400mm^2 or so roughly if rumors are true. So again, quite a large piece of silicon going out for millions of xbox/ps5 consoles. That size of die adds up quick when you are used to making 100-250mm^2 for most of your stuff. Never mind SERVER dies that use that or far more in what is coming. What will 128c take? Can they do a 7nm 128c (7nm+ EUV rumor for zen3 4000 series) with decent speeds/watts? We'll see, but those would be large I'd guess no matter what way they go :) No worries, silicon shortages coming probably for the next year as companies go back to work and buy silicon regardless of people. They can't quit the server, AI, cloud, car wars. Enterprise has no choice, innovate, or someone else takes all these over first and you're left with crumbs.
Checking a Epyc Rome die, 416 (cpus)+125 (IOD)+some other stuff, 1008mm^2 total silicon if I'm reading the pic right...LOL. Either way, again, many ways to spend double AMD silicon if you have BETTER products. I'd guess at some point Intel won't have shortages and instead will have overstock reports :) I see emptying shelves for new products (NV been doing it for a while, amd too probably). Intel is probably having issues dumping stuff that sucks in many things vs. AMD currently, but fortunately it would seem most of AMD's new silicon went to consoles (another dumb move, go after RICH, then poor consoles for $10-20 a chip). They just don't seem to know how to make HIGH MARGIN stuff FIRST. They always go no margin junk apu/console, then the money makers when it's too late, NV/Intel already collected. Looks like we'll do it again. AMD will have 1B NET INCOME per Q when they quit wasting silicon on consoles before FLAGSHIP CPU/GPU/SERVER. Aim high, go low only when forced. I wouldn't make a single piece of silicon for poor people (cpus under $200, gpu same) until servers were no longer selling and some were stuck on the shelf. ONLY then, do you make a lower margin product as the little guy in this game.
Also note, simply doubling wafers doesn't magically have 2x wafers pop out tomorrow. You have to rejig designs for a (potentially new process for product X) new process, or product that IS a new design itself, etc etc. IT is months before you tool up for new products before you see it on a shelf. Apple doesn't cancel 7nm 1 day and pump out 5nm 24hrs later. That takes time, then time for AMD or whoever takes their place to tape out more chips on said older process (7nm in this case for AMD) Either way, CUSTOMERS WIN here IMHO. More stuff floating around, we get better chips, at better cost and they have no way to avoid the war really. TEch is going to be great for buyers for the next 3-5yrs. Massively explosions coming in perf/watts/features etc now coming into view. We just saw 830mm^2 max, then shortly after 1600mm^2+, now talking 3500mm^2+ dies. We have everyone talking packaging tech, etc. Massive power incoming from MANY directions of tech in silicon. Lots of fun coming, upgrade your life so you can afford more toys people :)
Off work? Take some training courses to raise your value while off, go back stronger and worth MORE $$$. Or just wait until the toys you want come down a year later. Wait or make more bank. :)
soresu - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
Ugh... typical Intel contrary naming scheme.What happened to their "magneto electric spin orbit transistors are the next big thing...." speech last year?
I guess not much is the answer.
MBravo - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
Does anybody know where can I see entire talk? Or is everything behind a paywall?edzieba - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
Intel are already using variable numbers of fins/transistor to tune transistor operation on the same die (e.g. trading off current capacity vs. leakage), so this gives them more flexibility in varying gate width directly rather than in discrete steps.name99 - Monday, June 22, 2020 - link
"Dr. Mayberry stated that he expects nanowire transistors to be in high volume production within five years"Sure, we all expect this.
The question is whether Dr. Mayberry, or anyone else, expects Intel to be manufacturing any of them!
Adonisds - Tuesday, June 23, 2020 - link
When Intel moved to finfet clocks got substantially reduced compared to sandy bridge. What can we probably expect of the overclocking potential of gaafet?sonicmerlin - Saturday, June 27, 2020 - link
But even with shrinking transistors, CPU speeds barely improve with each generation.